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Prediction for CME (2026-06-26T21:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-26T21:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47105/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C2 starting around 2026-06-26T21:12Z. It is also seen to the S in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 and to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The most likely source candidate for this CME is a region of southward directed dimming best seen in SDO AIA 195 starting around 2026-06-26T17:34Z centered around S30E05. There is also some field line movement likely associated with this dimming over the S limb best seen in SDO AIA 171 beginning around 2026-06-26T20:06Z and in GOES SUVI 284 beginning around 2026-06-26T19:49Z. A much less likely source candidate for this CME is associated with a C2.4 class flare from AR 14475 (S09W04) that peaked at 2026-06-26T20:21Z. The flare is best seen in SDO AIA 131, but the eruption followed by some post eruptive arcades is best seen in SDO AIA 304 and SDO AIA 195. Arrival characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 4nT at 2026-06-30T11:01Z to 10nT at 2026-06-30T11:22Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from ~340 km/s at 2026-06-30T11:01Z to 437 km/s at 2026-06-30T11:07Z. Increases in temperature, from ~65,000 K to ~430,000 K, and density, from ~1 p/cc to 11 p/cc, are also observed at 2026-06-30T11:01Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-06-30T11:01Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-30T15:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 70.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 450
Longitude (deg): 002W
Latitude (deg):  12S
Half-angular width (deg): 38

Notes: Asymmetric eruption with CME analysed as two distinct components. This gives the parameters of more northern section, as most likely on Earth-Sun line. Weak impact expected, but dense material could give build geomagnetic activity with flux rope passage.
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 58.02 hour(s)
Difference: -3.98 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-06-28T01:00Z

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